Liberal Arts Major
Well. That was a weird game. Jets played so poorly until the very end when they started playing decently, but really the Giants just imploded and lost the game starting with the decision to go for it on 4th down instead of kicking the FG.
This game was funny. Classic Giants!
The Jets' remaining schedule is beautiful: the awful Titans, the terrible Cowboys, the rather bad Bills, and the self-destructing Patriots at home. 11-5 is within reach!
Meanwhile in Tampa, Jameis Winston apparently doesn't suck! Maybe they should convert him to a running back. You can't throw picks as a running back! He does have 5 fumbles though.
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~ Ogordemir ~
"The sciences have hitherto harmed us little; but some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new dark age." ~ H.P Lovecraft, The Call of Cthulhu
Liberal Arts Major
And honestly I think it's more likely they go 10-6. They lose tiebreakers to the Chiefs in every scenario, I believe. And they lose tiebreakers to the Steelers in most reasonable scenarios.
So they need to finish a game ahead of one of them to make it.
=(
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
Liberal Arts Major
too bad i don't think that's a winning strategy against the patriots.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
Liberal Arts Major
The biggest problem with his performance is it seems to confirm what the HERETICS had all been saying about him in the NFL: he had great difficulty throwing accurate passes long, his passes all tended to be floaters, and he had some difficulty seeing what was going on down the field on account of being tiny. On the flip side, he threw a touchdown pass in his NFL debut and strung together several good drives, even if they did mostly end in tragedy.
But again, Matt Cassel sucks.
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~ Ogordemir ~
"The sciences have hitherto harmed us little; but some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new dark age." ~ H.P Lovecraft, The Call of Cthulhu
Liberal Arts Major
then again, cassel did get called for intentional grounding on a pass he threw for an int
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
Liberal Arts Major
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~ Ogordemir ~
"The sciences have hitherto harmed us little; but some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new dark age." ~ H.P Lovecraft, The Call of Cthulhu
Liberal Arts Major
They need to win out and need a loss out of one of: Broncos, Steelers, or Chiefs. Best chance is probably the Broncos losing to the Bengals next week.
Or if one of those teams loses out, the Jets could afford to lose a game, but that seems kind of unlikely.
=(
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
Liberal Arts Major
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~ Ogordemir ~
"The sciences have hitherto harmed us little; but some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new dark age." ~ H.P Lovecraft, The Call of Cthulhu
DSB Moderator
Side note: the Jags are 5-9 and still capable of making the playoffs.
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"In the best relationships, nobody wears the pants."
Liberal Arts Major
If the Jets, Broncos, Steelers, and Chiefs all finish 11-5 then the Chiefs win the AFC West and the Steelers and Jets get in over the Broncos for the Wild Card.
That's assuming the Jets can win out though. If they lose to the Patriots, like I kind of expect, then yeah, they need 2 losses (and the Jets beating the Bills).
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
Liberal Arts Major
True, the matchups are favorable, but even so, the probability of all three teams winning out is very small. Even at 90% odds for each of them to win each of those games, that's still just .9^6 = ~53%.
If the Jets lose a game, though, they're probably hosed, since the probability of any one of those teams losing both its games is much lower.
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~ Ogordemir ~
"The sciences have hitherto harmed us little; but some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new dark age." ~ H.P Lovecraft, The Call of Cthulhu
Liberal Arts Major
that is all
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
Liberal Arts Major
___
~ Ogordemir ~
"The sciences have hitherto harmed us little; but some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new dark age." ~ H.P Lovecraft, The Call of Cthulhu
Liberal Arts Major
Jets bailed out by the OT coin toss.
all hail coin tosses
control their own destiny
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
Liberal Arts Major
~~~
Okay. Obviously you need the Texans to lose and the Colts to win Week 17 to put them both at 8-8.
1. Colts beat Titans
2. Jaguars beat Texans
Head-to-head, common opponents, and conference record would all be tied so we skip to Strength of Victory where the real fun begins.
You can simplify this by only looking at cases where they have unique wins. So for the Texans it's the Bengals, Jets, and Saints. For the Colts it's the Broncos, Falcons, and Dolphins. The three for the Texans are 27-17, the 3 for the Colts are 23-21. Those teams have 4 games in total left to play so the Colts teams need to all win and the Texans teams need to all lose, so let's tag those all on.
~Week 16~
1. Broncos beat Bengals
~Week 17~
2. Colts beat Titans
3. Jaguars beat Texans
4. Ravens beat Bengals
5. Bills beat Jets
6. Falcons beat Saints
7. Broncos beat Chargers
8. Dolphins beat Patriots
All righty, but that still only brings Strength of Victory to a tie so down we go to Strength of Schedule. Mercifully, this is easy with division opponents. They only have two unique opponents so they're all we need to look at. For the Texans its the Bengals and Chiefs. For the Colts it is the Broncos and Steelers. We already have to assume the Bengals won out and the Broncos lost out so adjust their records accordingly and you find that both combos are 21-10 with only the Chiefs/Raiders and Steelers/Browns in play.
The Colts do in fact clinch if the Steelers win and the Chiefs lose here, however technically speaking they do not require it. If they both win or both lose, Strength of Schedule is a tie and we move on down to... "Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed." I assume that means net point differential? Okay, so let's take a look! Texans are +2, and the Colts are... -81. oh. well that's not good.
So, where does that leave us?
Colts clinch the AFC South IF
~Week 16~
1. Broncos beat Bengals
~Week 17~
2. Colts beat Titans
3. Jaguars beat Texans
4. Ravens beat Bengals
5. Bills beat Jets
6. Falcons beat Saints
7. Broncos beat Chargers
8. Dolphins beat Patriots
Then
9a. Steelers beat Browns
10a. Raiders beat Chiefs
OR
9b. The Chiefs and Steelers both win OR both lose AND the Colts go +84 or higher on point differential compared to the Texans in Week 17*.
*Should you reach this step and the Colts point differential is exactly +83 we keep going down the tiebreakers but I'm not doing that. <_< Also assumes I read this tiebreaker step correctly.
So yeah.
~~~
I'll note that thinking it over since then I think I'm reading that one tiebreaker wrong because if it's really just net point differential, the next step makes no sense. It's the same thing but with all teams, not just the conference. So I'm thinking instead it just ranks the teams 1-16 on points for and points against and averages them. Which to me seems silly and net point differential makes more sense, but eh.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
Liberal Arts Major
It turns out Belichick really did want to kick off, but he wanted to take advantage of his bad choices by letting the Jets pick whether to kick or receive, allowing him to pick the direction. (Since the Jets were going to choose to receive, because they aren't as CRAFTY as he is, he would end up kicking regardless of who made that choice.) But the captain got ahead of himself and said he wanted to "kick in this direction," which the ref interpreted as a choice to kick rather than a choice in direction.
So it wasn't a coin toss misunderstanding that resulted in the Pats losing. It was all in the coaching!
I'll note that thinking it over since then I think I'm reading that one tiebreaker wrong because if it's really just net point differential, the next step makes no sense. It's the same thing but with all teams, not just the conference. So I'm thinking instead it just ranks the teams 1-16 on points for and points against and averages them. Which to me seems silly and net point differential makes more sense, but eh.
This sounded weird to me too, so I looked it up. It's ranking in points allowed + ranking in points scored. See this Reddit post for a topical example.
One advantage to this system is that it's much less sensitive to the effect of individual games. One disadvantage is that "combined rankings" make very little in the way of sense.
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~ Ogordemir ~
"The sciences have hitherto harmed us little; but some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new dark age." ~ H.P Lovecraft, The Call of Cthulhu
Liberal Arts Major
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~ Ogordemir ~
"The sciences have hitherto harmed us little; but some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new dark age." ~ H.P Lovecraft, The Call of Cthulhu
Liberal Arts Major
Steelers are the better team so in that sense they "deserved" it more, I suppose
but ugh
what a miserable game
classic jets game
classic jets season
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
DSB Moderator
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"In the best relationships, nobody wears the pants."
Liberal Arts Major
Had the Steelers beat the Ravens last week and the Jets beat the Bills this week with the other results holding up. Broncos would take the 1 seed at 12-4 with a win, but would miss the playoffs at 11-5 with a loss.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
DSB Moderator
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"In the best relationships, nobody wears the pants."
DSB Moderator
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"In the best relationships, nobody wears the pants."
Liberal Arts Major
I can't wait for the NFC final to be Arizona vs. Seattle in Glendale so I can go watch the Cardinals wipe the floor with the Seahawks. The floor, I say!
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~ Ogordemir ~
"The sciences have hitherto harmed us little; but some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new dark age." ~ H.P Lovecraft, The Call of Cthulhu
DSB Moderator
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"In the best relationships, nobody wears the pants."
Liberal Arts Major
for so many reasons
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
DSB Moderator
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"In the best relationships, nobody wears the pants."
Liberal Arts Major
___
~ Ogordemir ~
"The sciences have hitherto harmed us little; but some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new dark age." ~ H.P Lovecraft, The Call of Cthulhu
DSB Moderator
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"In the best relationships, nobody wears the pants."
Liberal Arts Major
Unfortunately the Seahawks screwed me twice: first by beating the Cardinals in Week 17 to knock them out of the first seed and second by losing to Carolina like chumps.
Denver won though! Now all that stands between PEYTON MANNING and WORLD DOMINATION is some shitty team from Boston.
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~ Ogordemir ~
"The sciences have hitherto harmed us little; but some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new dark age." ~ H.P Lovecraft, The Call of Cthulhu
Liberal Arts Major
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Alestra77: you seem to have glossed over the fact that you treat all women like prostitutes
Alestra77: "k, so, I bought you coffee... when do I get my handjob?"
Goddammit, I hate you so much. ~ Kenri to me (3 times)
Alestra77: who the fuck is porky